aa5874

I am shocked that you have no idea that probability has no absolute value.

You seem to think that there is no such thing as the probability of a non-event.

I have in front of me a Pure Math book on probabilities and it completely contradics you.

You have no idea that one can use data to determine the probability of the failure of an event to occur.

For example, one can use data to determine the probability that:

1. it will NOT snow on a particular day.

2. it will NOT rain at a time of the year.

3. there will be NO hurricanes during winter.

Grog

Absolute value is a mathematical term. It means the distance from 0. We measure probabilities as the distance from 0. There is 0% to 100% probability of something occurring. We don't say there is a -99% chance of snow today. We say there is less than 1% chance of snow (or approaching 0, or for the very confident 0). Or we can say there is a 99.9% chance of no snow. Absolute value is expressed as a positive number, like distance. I am not -129 miles from Portland, Oregon.

Yes, you can use probability to predict the failure of an event. But you would express that probability in positive terms, not negative. there might be 25% chance or a 80% chance of failure. You do not express it in terms of negative numbers.

Negative probability is purely theoretical. I can't imagine a context in which it could be used to study ancient history.

But we are talking about misunderstandings here.

aa5874

You seem not to understand maths. You seem to have little or no idea how and when to apply a minus sign to numbers or percentages.

In maths, -129 miles from Portland, Oregon can be represented in graphical format to show direction and distance.

Also, the mere function of subtraction in maths can change any positive number or percentage to a negative.

May I also remind you that a decrease in probability of any event may be represented by a negative value.

Grog

Ok, we can leave it at this point.

aa5874

It is at this very point where I continue.

One must have a fundamental understanding of probability to show that there is little or no probability that there was an HJ of Nazareth.

History like Science is a product of DATA.

The probability that Jesus of Nazareth existed in the 1st century is far less than "Romulus" the Myth founder of Rome because the earliest Jesus cult argued and documented for hundreds of years that he was born of a Ghost.

Effectively, the present Data for Jesus of Nazareth negates the probability of the existence of such a character in the 1st century and before the Fall of the Jewish Temple c 70 CE.