Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Nikolai · 03-17-2003, 05:43 AM

I was browsing through my hometown paper yesterday, traditionaly very right-wing, and came upon this poor excuse for a letter.
One would wonder what spin the global-warming Chicken Littles will put on this winter, with its bone-numbing snow, sleet, and ice storms. It could have been a doozie once they were able to dig themselves out long enough to give it. Richmond Times Dispatch Letter to the Editor

I feel compeled to reply, but I need some help regarding the science. As far as I understand global warming increases the average global temperatures but local climates may go to either extreme, be it hot or cold. Could someone sugest some sources from, say, science journal to help me write the letter?

Lobstrosity · 03-17-2003, 11:09 AM

I don't have any articles, but you're right in your understanding. Global warming only makes statement about the globally-averaged temperature. It is not strange to see the amplitude of temperature swings actually increase due to global warming, producing hotter summers and colder winters. Using a cold winter to debunk the notion of global warming is akin to debunking evolution with the argument "if we came from monkies, why are there still monkies around." Hell, even Bush has admitted that global warming is taking place. His statement on the matter is that this will be a problem for our children to deal with (because clearly as the leader of the free world there's absolutely nothing he could do to start setting things right now--what a great guy, huh?).

Craig · 03-17-2003, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Nikolai
I was browsing through my hometown paper yesterday, traditionaly very right-wing, and came upon this poor excuse for a letter.
One would wonder what spin the global-warming Chicken Littles will put on this winter, with its bone-numbing snow, sleet, and ice storms. It could have been a doozie once they were able to dig themselves out long enough to give it. Richmond Times Dispatch Letter to the Editor

I feel compeled to reply, but I need some help regarding the science. As far as I understand global warming increases the average global temperatures but local climates may go to either extreme, be it hot or cold. Could someone sugest some sources from, say, science journal to help me write the letter?

As noted above, one winter in the Eastern US does not make for a worldwide, long term trend. Typical response from someone that doesn't understand how science works. They look at one anecdotal situation and base their entire opinion about a complex and still-largely-unknown action on it.

Seattle had a freakishly warm winter, with way more blue skies and dry days than normal. I wonder what he'd say about that?

Jesse · 03-17-2003, 02:28 PM

I don't know the details, but I believe global warming is thought to produce more extreme types of weather. this article, here's an interesting graphic on "extreme precipitation events":

Quote:

Extreme precipitation events. While trends in temperature and precipitation extremes vary globally, there is growing evidence for more extreme precipitation events, and the overall areas of the world affected either by droughts or excessive wetness have increased.

Green = increasing, Brown = decreasing___ All stations/trends displayed regardless of statistical significance

Source: National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA

And here's another article about extreme weather and global warming:

http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/qa/08.html

I'm not sure if global warming predicts extremes in temperature variation as well as precipitation, though.

ps418 · 03-18-2003, 10:20 AM

This report may be helpful."Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, a report by a committee of the National Research Council"

The sad truth (completely off-topic) is that even without the massive release of anthropogenic CO2, the climate is unstable over long time periods. Global mean temps can and have changed radically over decades, or less. Seen in the context of the past 2.5 million years, the past 10k years (the Holocene) have been anamolously stable. If the Younger Dryas event were to happen again this century, for instance, it'd be disastrous.

Patrick

Titanpoint · 03-18-2003, 11:49 AM

If Global Warming (and I take it to mean anthropogenic rather than just natural variation) is able to produce both higher temperatures and lower temperatures, more storminess (however that is measured), more drought and more rainfall, how in principle would you falsify that hypothesis?

Corona688 · 03-18-2003, 01:40 PM

We'd need some sort of model to describe HOW global warming affects the weather as it is purported to do, and make predictions from that model, then compare reality to these predictions.

Lobstrosity · 03-18-2003, 03:18 PM

There are people working on such models, but the climate is quite a complicated beast. For example, increasing the average global temperature increases how much water vapor is in the air. This leads to more clouds, which actually reflect sunlight back out into space. So now you have a warming mechanism producing a cooling mechanism, and you need to try to figure out which is more significant and...well, it just becomes very complicated.

Ab_Normal · 03-18-2003, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ps418
If the Younger Dryas event were to happen again this century, for instance, it'd be disastrous.

For the benefit of any other lurkers who went, "The pardon me event?", here's a link and alink

Ab_Normal... searching Google so you don't have to since August 2002.

Titanpoint · 03-19-2003, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Titanpoint
Titanpoint:
If Global Warming (and I take it to mean anthropogenic rather than just natural variation) is able to produce both higher temperatures and lower temperatures, more storminess (however that is measured), more drought and more rainfall, how in principle would you falsify that hypothesis?

If global warming makes these predictions, this aspect of the theory could be falsified by observing that variations in rainfall and temperature have not changed significantly over time. For example, in the map I posted above, there might have been about equal numbers of green dots (increasing extreme precipitation) and brown (decreasing extreme precipitation). Or, in this chart from here:

If the area with a large amount of precipitation was showing no overall increasing trend, again, this would be evidence against the theory.

As for climate, I am still not sure if global warming actually predicts an increase in temperature variations. But certainly it does predict a steady increase in average global temperatures, and this is presumably a more important prediction, so a failure to find this would probably falsify the theory.

Excuse me, but if you are answering my question, try just quoting it in a posting of your own rather than editing mine.

WTF?

03-17-2003, 05:43 AM	#1
Nikolai Regular Member Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Richmond, Virginia Posts: 422	Global Warming Letter I was browsing through my hometown paper yesterday, traditionaly very right-wing, and came upon this poor excuse for a letter. One would wonder what spin the global-warming Chicken Littles will put on this winter, with its bone-numbing snow, sleet, and ice storms. It could have been a doozie once they were able to dig themselves out long enough to give it. Richmond Times Dispatch Letter to the Editor I feel compeled to reply, but I need some help regarding the science. As far as I understand global warming increases the average global temperatures but local climates may go to either extreme, be it hot or cold. Could someone sugest some sources from, say, science journal to help me write the letter?

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03-17-2003, 11:09 AM	#2
Lobstrosity Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: San Diego, California Posts: 719	I don't have any articles, but you're right in your understanding. Global warming only makes statement about the globally-averaged temperature. It is not strange to see the amplitude of temperature swings actually increase due to global warming, producing hotter summers and colder winters. Using a cold winter to debunk the notion of global warming is akin to debunking evolution with the argument "if we came from monkies, why are there still monkies around." Hell, even Bush has admitted that global warming is taking place. His statement on the matter is that this will be a problem for our children to deal with (because clearly as the leader of the free world there's absolutely nothing he could do to start setting things right now--what a great guy, huh?).

03-18-2003, 10:20 AM	#5
ps418 Veteran Member Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Louisville, KY, USA Posts: 1,840	This report may be helpful."Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, a report by a committee of the National Research Council" The sad truth (completely off-topic) is that even without the massive release of anthropogenic CO2, the climate is unstable over long time periods. Global mean temps can and have changed radically over decades, or less. Seen in the context of the past 2.5 million years, the past 10k years (the Holocene) have been anamolously stable. If the Younger Dryas event were to happen again this century, for instance, it'd be disastrous. Patrick

03-18-2003, 11:49 AM	#6
Titanpoint Regular Member Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Netherlands Posts: 130	If Global Warming (and I take it to mean anthropogenic rather than just natural variation) is able to produce both higher temperatures and lower temperatures, more storminess (however that is measured), more drought and more rainfall, how in principle would you falsify that hypothesis?

03-18-2003, 01:40 PM	#7
Corona688 Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Hiding from Julian ;) Posts: 5,368	We'd need some sort of model to describe HOW global warming affects the weather as it is purported to do, and make predictions from that model, then compare reality to these predictions.

03-18-2003, 03:18 PM	#8
Lobstrosity Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: San Diego, California Posts: 719	There are people working on such models, but the climate is quite a complicated beast. For example, increasing the average global temperature increases how much water vapor is in the air. This leads to more clouds, which actually reflect sunlight back out into space. So now you have a warming mechanism producing a cooling mechanism, and you need to try to figure out which is more significant and...well, it just becomes very complicated.

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