Freethought & Rationalism Archive

Doctor X · 07-27-2003, 09:40 AM

Damn!! What I get for trying to write good. . . .

--J. "I will win! I will win! I wiiiillllllll wwiiIIIIIINNNnnnnnnn!" D.

ComestibleVenom · 07-27-2003, 01:10 PM

suburban

Quote:

And you dare to call Creationists unscientific.

Who exactly are you talking to? A fictional person who believes that every combination of DNA is equally likely?

ComestibleVenom · 07-27-2003, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Muad'Dib
, which is less likely than 1 in 10^67, as you can check on a computer algebra system. Surely you don't claim that statisticians disbelieve in the existence of playing cards?

Oh, cool. Where might I get one of these computer algebra systems. I'd like to learn how to do that.

Valentine Pontifex · 07-27-2003, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Suburban
Statistically, any odds greater than 1 in 10^50 are considered impossible

Others have already provided counterexamples. But I don't think anyone has yet mentioned that this is the so-called Borel's law. Indeed the use of Borel's law by the creationists is a fallacy. Indeed Borel pointed out that such applications were fallacious.

Borel's Law and the Origin of Many Creationist Probability Assertions

Also see: Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations

07-27-2003, 01:57 PM

Many thanks, Valentine, for those two interesting links. It is amazing how keen so many cretinists seem to be at throwing out probabilities with gay abandon.

Goober · 07-28-2003, 04:17 AM

Back to laughing at aberdeen, did you read the "Random chance A-Z primer of science and the bible"?. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Here are some of the better (and shorter) quotes:

Quote:

B) Some modern scientists have speculated that the universe may be surrounded by water; i.e., that it may be a huge cosmic 'bubble' expanding in a much larger cosmic ocean. The Bible says the universe is an expansion that is surrounded by water.

C) Modern science claims that our known current universe took a very long time, that is from our human perspective, to come into being. So does the Bible.

D) Modern science claims that the earth is spherical. So does the Bible (although this interpretation is disputed by some).

Quote:

O) Some modern scientists have speculated that beings from habitats beyond the earth may have visited our planet one or more times. The Bible says that this is true.

It's so obviously crap that I don't even need to say anything.

caravelair · 07-28-2003, 08:25 AM

Quote:

B) Some modern scientists have speculated that the universe may be surrounded by water; i.e., that it may be a huge cosmic 'bubble' expanding in a much larger cosmic ocean. The Bible says the universe is an expansion that is surrounded by water.

that's the funniest one. ha ha ha. i really would love to know which "modern scientists" are claiming this.

gee, i wonder why aberdeen gave up on defending his post.

Oolon Colluphid · 07-28-2003, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by caravelair
gee, i wonder why aberdeen gave up on defending his post.

Well, he strongly implied to me that he would be replying. I'll have to email and ask him... In all seriousness, I'd like to know where and how we're wrong

Oolon

Muad'Dib · 07-28-2003, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Doctor X
I think people make a result "special" like the order of your deck of cards and therefore forget that all of the others are not "equally special."

Very true. I like the following analogy...

Say you're an energy being at the beginning of life on earth, and you've bet with a friend that someday intelligent beings will walk the earth, intelligent beings exactly like real-life humans with the exception that their optic nerves aren't wired backwards. You'd lose your bet, even though what really happened was pretty special anyway!

It's worth bearing in mind that the way we are isn't the only way to get an intelligent species, even restricting the stage in question to life on earth.

Muad'Dib · 07-28-2003, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by ComestibleVenom
Oh, cool. Where might I get one of these computer algebra systems. I'd like to learn how to do that.

The reason a permutation of n objects is n! (pronounced "n factorial") is discussed here. In particular, there are 52! ways to arrange 52 playing cards

I used Maple, but other software packages just as good for this purpose are Mathematica and Matlab. They might be kind of expensive though.

The reason it's easier to use a CAS to calculate large factorials is that they can handle arbitrarily large numbers. If you tried to calculate 52! using C++ (even with longint), you'd get an overflow (the number is too big to handle) unless you get creative with div and mod. It's easier to use a CAS if one is available.

If you're masochistic you can also try to do it by hand...52*51, then multiply that by 50, then that by 49, etc...I don't recommend this though.

Even with a calculator you'll run into an overflow sooner or later.

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07-27-2003, 09:40 AM	#71
Doctor X Banned Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: USA Posts: 3,794	Damn!! What I get for trying to write good. . . . --J. "I will win! I will win! I wiiiillllllll wwiiIIIIIINNNnnnnnnn!" D.

07-27-2003, 01:57 PM	#75
DMB Guest Posts: n/a	Many thanks, Valentine, for those two interesting links. It is amazing how keen so many cretinists seem to be at throwing out probabilities with gay abandon.

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