Plebe

We all know the saying, "The history book on the shelf is always repeating itself?" Well, I'm not sure who said it, but I'm going to paraphrase here "Religion does well in bad times." I wonder, how many years it will take before we see the type of prosperity that occurred during the 60's,70'and 80's? This return of "Church 'in' State" thing I am thinking will probably blow over in about 7 years, maybe 12 at the longest before everybody gets sick of it, these things go in cycles. Any old-timers here at infidels who can recall the last time there was this volume of talk about Church and State as cut and pasted below from this forum today as an example?
Topic Topic Starter Replies Last Post
CBN Coverage of Prayer in Schools: The 30 Second Kneeldown Plebe 1 September 20, 2002 10:24 PM
Opponent of strict separation nominated for Federal Appeals Court Toto 23 September 20, 2002 10:14 PM
Pledge argument. Seeking critique. Alonzo Fyfe 17 September 20, 2002 09:38 PM
Religious Proselytism joedad 10 September 20, 2002 09:18 PM
CF: Prayer in School RufusAtticus 3 September 20, 2002 08:35 PM
ID in Ohio, again Coragyps 0 September 20, 2002 06:06 PM
Critiquing creationism is good science education Pages: 1 2 doubtingt 29 September 20, 2002 05:02 PM
ABC News report tonight at 9:00CST enrious 19 September 20, 2002 04:53 PM
Note on media coverage on unbelief Toto 1 September 20, 2002 04:47 PM
More from the Founding Fathers on C/S sep. Shake 2 September 20, 2002 04:05 PM
Pope: Crosses belong in all schools szcax 18 September 20, 2002 11:55 AM
An issue-to-be? Coragyps 14 September 20, 2002 10:12 AM
Faith Based Funding Quickly Becomes Political Vote-Buying Toto 3 September 19, 2002 08:21 PM
Activism Resources Toto 3 September 19, 2002 06:35 PM
See You at the Pole GaryP 10 September 19, 2002 02:22 PM
Counter-Demonstration in Chicago, 9/25/02 YoursTrulyBeth 3 September 19, 2002 02:16 PM
Fundies try to get another amendment!! stardust 11 September 18, 2002 07:39 PM
Would atheist activism by teachers violate separation of Church and State? Pages: 1 2 Perchance 33 September 18, 2002 07:08 PM
ACLU Action Alert: Oppose The Faith-Based Initiative crazyfingers 2 September 18, 2002 06:27 PM
Will we help March lead to change, or let it be a futile gesture? Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 galiel 121 September 18, 2002 02:20 PM
Placards for Godless March LLaurieG 20 September 18, 2002 12:20 PM
Letters on point: god in politics Secular Elation 2 September 18, 2002 08:17 AM
my response to a Pepsi/pledge spamming Gooch's dad 22 September 17, 2002 07:50 PM
Latest Godspam related to Pepsi's sound decision MOJO-JOJO 2 September 17, 2002 07:39 AM
Atheist sues to block 9/11 prayer Pages: 1 2 Lone Wolf 27 September 16, 2002 01:51 PM


All times are PT (US & Canada). Page: 1 2 3 4

Buffman

I wonder what some of the pre-Christian Roman Emperors thought about that religious cult taking root in Palestine? Religious superstition has been around for quite some time. When is its cycle over? When will enough folks get sick of it before dogma becomes the law of the land?

Plebe

I think the decadence and open views fostered in the 60's,70's and 80's will see their return when the economy turns around, but when? It's just that this time the cycle of 'depression' seems to be showing a more prolonged trend and thus we're seeing people do things like this 30-second kneel down stuff in response to it-a grasping at straws in an era that is supposed to have represented so much more!

ybnormal

So you see these little cultural fads like the one you mention and See You At The Pole, as a response to current, general economic, social and political climates? Like it's a fad that will pass when things improve, when these same folks have no need to be grasping at straws anymore?

Plebe

ybnormal quote:
Originally posted by Plebe:
It's just that this time the cycle of 'depression' seems to be showing a more prolonged trend and thus we're seeing people do things like this 30-second kneel down stuff in response to it-a grasping at straws in an era that is supposed to have represented so much more!

So you see these little cultural fads like the one you mention and See You At The Pole, as a response to current, general economic, social and political climates? Like it's a fad that will pass when things improve, when these same folks have no need to be grasping at straws anymore?
Yes, it definitely goes in "cycles" and many economists in the last 10 years were predicting that this cycle of 'depression' would be more controlled and prolonged. In real estate for example the "cycles" of "boom" and "bust" used to be closer together with folks historically moving and buying a home every 5 years [and making a living in real estate sales was more stable than it is now-I'm in the process of getting out of the business of selling real estate too], then that went to estimates of every 7 years and now projections are estimating 7 to 10 years. On top of this, economists and economic news is showing stronger trends towards saving and less consumer spending, esp. retail.
Now, if you are an investor more than one expert is suggesting investing in the commodities markets and I give one article here with a link to the author's site if you are interested in reading more articles from this man who just completed a 3 year Around the World trip and is forecasting a weakening of the US Dollar over a period of time. He is among the Ultra-affluent so you have to "read between the lines" of what he says here and at his website so to speak to reach your conclusions as to what the future holds for all economic strata of society. It remains to be seen how long though this protracted depression cycle will go on for but it's not too difficult to see what the future holds when taking into consideration reports such as his along with International and National News. He writes for <a href="http://www.worth.com" target="_blank">http://www.worth.com</a> as well:
<a href="http://www.jimrogers.com" target="_blank">http://www.jimrogers.com</a>
Breakfast of Champions?
Looking for a hot tip? Here's my advice: Do not buy the hype from Wall St and the press that stocks always go up. There are long periods when stocks do nothing and other investments are better.

That's not what a lot of people expect me to say these days. (It's probably not what they want to hear, either.) The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500 indexes, after all, are down substantially, trading at levels not seen since 1998. To many investors, it seems like a perfect time to do some bargain shopping for battered quality stocks. Everyone knows "sell high and buy low" (though I'm always surprised at how few people follow that adage), so now appears to be an ideal time for a bottom feeder like me.

Sorry, bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows. More important, many investors seem to have forgotten a hard reality: There are frequent periods when stock markets don't do much.

From 1900 to around 1920, for example, U.S. stocks floundered while the economy grew. Then stocks skyrocketed in the 1920s. In 1966, the Dow was trading around 1,000. By 1982, it was at 800, down 20 percent over 16 years and that is not adjusted for the high inflation of those years. So much for long-term investing.

Over the next 15 years the market soared.

We recently had a decade of unprecedented growth. Is it such a stretch to think that we might now see a mediocre period of equal length as has happened throughout history?

Despite my distaste for U.S. stocks, though, don't think I'm sour on all investments. I do believe there are some good bets out there. It will come as no surprise to faithful readers that I believe this is a great time to invest in stocks from other countries, where stock markets haven't been as exploited as the U.S. market has been in the last decade. On my recent trip around the world, I bought shares of companies in places like China and Chile, countries I feel have great potential. In fact, right now I own shares of companies in 28 countries. Of course, it is best to go to many of these nations to open brokerage accounts in order to buy stock, but I'm all in favor of Americans expanding their horizons. Plus, there are mutual funds that cater to the international investor as well as many foreign stocks that trade as American depositary receipts on U.S. exchanges.

The coming decline in the US dollar will make foreign stocks and currencies even more attractive.

I think this is also a great time to invest in private equity, helping companies grow from the ground up. It's much more effective to build a company quietly and soundly during a down market than it is to, say, try and ride a boom-and-bust cycle during a high-flying market, something like what we saw during the go-go 1990s. The stock market, many discovered, isn't exactly the best place to raise money when you're building because -- surprise! -- it turns out you need real earnings and real growth opportunities to build a healthy company. The "promise" of earnings just doesn't cut it.

It is easier to build a real company in times like these than when even your hopeless competitors can raise easy money from a delusional stock market. Fortunately real companies will have less competition now.

Perhaps the best investment opportunity I see these days is in commodities. Commodities are real assets -- raw materials and natural resources from all over the world. They're not "sexy" investments at the moment. It's hard to get investors fired up about pork bellies or orange juice; few people get calls from their broker about a great new lead mine. That may soon change.

Commodities have a lot going for them, particularly in our current economic environment. They are a great investment during an inflationary period (such as now – despite what the government and Wall Street try to tell us) because increases in the price of raw materials reflect the rising costs of goods. In addition, commodities tend to zig when the equity markets zag. During that flat period for the U.S. stock market between 1966 and 1982, the commodity markets were booming.

Historically, there has been a bull market in commodities every 20 or 30 years, and I think we're already in the throes of a new one. And while raw materials can lose value, the price of a commodity will never go to zero. When you invest in commodities futures, you're not buying a piece of paper that says you own an intangible piece of company that can go bankrupt. You're buying a contract to purchase a real, tangible bushel of corn or several hundred pounds of coffee.

On the flip side, commodities can go quite high, as high as anyone is willing to pay. Gold, you might remember, went from $35 an ounce to $850 during the 1970s alone.

The main reason few people have talked about commodities lately is because that market has been in a massive slump for about 25 years. Keep in mind that commodities’ prices move not because of magic, but because of shifts in supply and demand. During the late 1970s and early 1980s, high prices led companies to overproduce, leading to substantial excess supply and stockpiling. As a result, inventories swelled, demand dried up, and prices started to fall. A fiscal crisis in Asia and Russia in the late 1990s only exacerbated the problem.

Sugar peaked at $65.65 in 1974 and then fell to $2.56 in 1985. Oil went from $2 in the early 1970s to as high as $40 a barrel in 1981 before falling to $10 in 1986. Many commodities producers went bankrupt or closed facilities. No one expanded operations. I can probably count on one hand the offshore drilling rigs built in the last 20 years or the new rubber plantations. The tough times, though, helped many commodities producers become lean and mean through consolidation, mergers and cost-cutting. All that excess supply has been sopped up. Demand has continued growing, particularly in fast-expanding economies like those in Asia.

That said, most people don't think it's possible to make money in commodities. Many brokerages reduced or closed their coverage during the 1990s in favor of the red-hot equities market. You can no longer buy commodities at Merrill Lynch – one of the largest brokers in the world. My guess is many analysts and even executives are too young to know how profitable a hot commodities market can be. They will soon.

The commodities market is showing signs of life. Cocoa prices have doubled over the past year, rising 20 percent since the beginning of 2002 alone. Gold has recovered from a 20-year downturn; the price of an ounce is now around $315. As of June 24, the Dow Jones AIG Commodity Futures Index, a marginal benchmark for the commodities world, is up 11 percent since the beginning of the year.

I started the Rogers Raw Materials Fund (RRMF), an index fund that tracks price moves of 35 raw materials on commodities exchanges, on Aug. 3, 1998, just before I left on my trip. Since then, it's up about 50 percent while the S&P 500 is down.

Is it too late, then, to get involved in commodities? Definitely not.

Investors rarely recognize beginnings and ends of bull markets. We can look at recent painful history, but the same pattern has repeated for centuries.

US Shares



1998 1999
Advances 3928 4224

Declines 5879 5467

[Source: Wall St Journal]

Sixty percent [60%] of shares were down in the US in 1998 and the same pattern repeated in 1999 – hardly a bull market. Yet the press and Wall Street were braying to buy stocks because of the New Economy and the bull market. The public finally poured huge amounts of money into the stock markets in the 1999-2000 period even though the bear market was already underway.

Throughout history the public has always piled into the latest bull market right at the top so few have caught on to the bull market in commodities. I’ll sell when Merrill Lynch has commodity brokers in every office again and the TV networks are broadcasting from the soybean pits in Chicago.

An investor who put his money in the S&P Index in 1982 did extremely well, but so did one who got on board in 1983-85. I suggest you consider putting your money in a raw materials index now and staying with it for the next several years.

So what specific commodities do I like now if you do not want a fund? As a rule, I like to look for the ones that are beaten up. Hogs, orange juice, sugar, and coffee, for instance, have been especially hard hit. It sounds like a breakfast menu as investment plan, but it could be the best money you ever spend, particularly if U.S. stocks continue to flounder. After all, breakfast is the most important meal of the day.

Plebe

Here's more from yet another economist which came in my email otherwise I would have supplied a direct link to it[the Jim Rogers article above lacks a direct link to the article at <a href="http://www.jimrogers.com" target="_blank">http://www.jimrogers.com</a> and that is why I cut and pasted it, this economist identifies the trend as "The Secular Bear." Makes sense since it looks like we are in the beginnings of "The Religious Bull."
The Daily Reckoning
Weekend Edition
September 21-22, 2002
Paris, France
By Addison Wiggin

MARKET REVIEW: The Secular Bear... Is A Big Bear

The Dow arrested its free-fall Friday with a meager 43
point gain. But as we noted in yesterday's rip-roaring
edition of The Daily Reckoning since the summer rally
topped out on August 22nd the "big board" has lost over
1,000 points. The Dow closed the week at its lowest
point since July... and, at 7986, it's only 284 points from
lows it hasn't seen since Clinton was video-taping depositions
in the West Wing.

Housing starts are down... cars and truck sales are
slowing... but in the absence of any interesting news
this weekend - or speeches from our great leaders to
pick apart... and starving as we are for "reliable
forecasts" about the outlook for the economy and
corporate profits... we might take a pause this weekend
and look at the market itself for guidance.

Ask any technical analyst and he'll tell you - the
outlook for the stock market is far from encouraging.
Our friend Marc Faber puts it in his Gloom, Boom and
Doom Report, "Unless stocks start to perform better
without delay, the US economy is headed for a very
difficult period."

"In particular," suggests Faber, "we continue to be
concerned by the financial, housing, and consumer
sectors, which depend on continuous accelerating credit
growth. The stock charts of all these sectors, which are
very closely connected, suggest that consumer and
mortgage credit growth will shortly slow down
considerably, and that if for one reason or another the
credit tab is closed altogether, economic activity will
be at high risk."

Analyzing a series of rather technical charts that plot
rising and falling P/E ratios on the S&P 500 with
average rates of return from the stock market, another
Daily Reckoning cohort, John Mauldin, draws these
conclusions: "there are very clear periods when returns
are better than others. These relate to secular bull and
bear markets. No big insight there. But... in general,
when P/E ratios begin to rise, you want to be in the
stock market. When they are falling, total returns over
the next decade will be below par.

"With the exception of WWII, when periods of falling P/E
ratios start, they just keep going until P/E ratios top
out. Generally, this topping period comes prior to a
recession..."

"Our charts show the high probability that a secular
bear is currently in progress," says Mauldin. "High and
falling P/E ratios, along with negative returns, are
always associated with the beginning of such markets. If
it is high, it historically has correlated with the
beginning of a secular bear, which always takes years to
work itself out. Fighting this trend is frustrating at
best."

When we speak of a "secular" bear market, mind you,
we're describing the market over a very long-term
period... as opposed short-term rallies like we saw
peaking out on August 22nd. Secular trends typically
last 5-20 years and consist of one or more primary
trends in sequence. According to work done by IM Vronsky
on the Gold-eagle.com website, there have been 23 Bear
Markets during the last 100 years.

"Bear Market declines over the past hundred years ranged
from -16% (1998) to -89% (1929-1932)," Vronsky states,
"Consequently, if the current Dow Bear Market were to
fall the average amount (34%), one would expect the DJII
to find its nadir at about 7800"... and you might expect
much of the pain to have run its course.

"However," Vronsky continues, "since market excesses in
the late 1990s approached those of 1929, we believe this
Bear Market will be far worse than the 100 year average.
The numbers suggest this Bear Market will be at least as
bad as the 1973-1974 debacle (-45%), which translates to
a Dow of 6500."

And that, my friend, is at least another 1400 down from
here. Trouble is... if this bear market was, in fact,
following the trajectory of 1973-1974 "debacle", the
Dow would have reached the big bottom after 23 months...
or some time back in January 2002.

We lay no claim to clairovoyant abilities, heck we can't
even tell what's going to happen by the end of the weekend,
but we're not afraid to hazard a guess: You ain't seen nothing
yet. The excesses of "irrational exuberance" have only just
begun getting worked out of the system. Sell the rallies.

Bon weekend,

Addison Wiggin,
The Daily Reckoning

P.S. As everyone seems to know, the month of September
has historically been the worst-performing month of the
year. "Conversely," suggest Dr. Faber, "the period from
mid-October to early January has seasonally been the
best-performing stretch." If you're interested in trying
to time the market... and the end of September or in
October the markets look particularly bad, "some buying
to capitalise on a trading rally [can be] be
considered."

P.P.S. Dr. Faber offers some anecdotal evidence - from
three continents - that suggests a slowdown in consumer
spending may have already begun. Once consumers stop
spending... what then? See Flotsam & Jetsam below...

- Daily Reckoning Book Of The Week -

Bear Market Investing Strategies
by Harry D. Schultz

The International Harry Schultz has been identifying
bear market warning signals and teaching people how to
prepare a profitable survival portfolio for over thirty
seven years... take a look what a few notables have to
say about his latest book:

"The first investment book I ever read - in the late
1960s - was Harry Schultz's Bear Markets. After watching
the late 1990s lunacy and inevitable fallout, I feel
every market student and investor should read a great
book on bear markets and thus become wise through the
printed word not later through painful disillusion. To
the rescue at the right time again comes Harry's new
take on the subject, Bear Market Investing Strategies.
Full of wisdom and practical advice, this book is an
utter necessity for anyone who wants to learn how to
make money in all market trends, not just rising ones."

--Robert R. Prechter, Jr.,
Elliott Wave International

"Harry Schultz probably has more bear market experience
than anyone...and plenty of experience in pseudo-bull
markets too. Now, he's come up with a book that can be
very important for investors at this awkward stage of
the world economy and market. Buy the book...it could
save you a lot of money."

--Bill Bonner,
The Daily Reckoning

For your copy, click here: Bear Market Investing
Strategies

<a href="http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470847026/dailyreckonin-20" target="_blank">http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470847026/dailyreckonin-20</a>

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------------

THIS WEEK in THE DAILY RECKONING

09/20/02 HOUSES WITHOUT MOATS
by Bill Bonner

"...As recently as a month ago, consumers thought they
could borrow money without worrying about paying it
back. Jobs would be no problem. The cash would keep
flowing. Stocks may crash, they believed...but the
housing sector is still growing and solid....but
yesterday brought news that the housing bubble may have
found its pin..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3878" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3878</a>

09/19/02 GREENSPAN'S BUBBLE
by John Mauldin

"...If the Fed, short of destructive policy, can do
nothing to stop a bull market, then why do so many
analysts assume that the Fed has some power to forestall
a bear market?..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3873" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3873</a>

09/18/02 BAD TIMES, GOOD MONEY
by Bill Bonner

"...Both the credit bubble and Mr. Greenspan's own
bubble reached their zenith about a year ago, by our
reckoning. Both now seem to be losing gas..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3869" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3869</a>

09/17/02 OMINOUS PARALLELS
by Dr. Kurt Richebacher

"...Assessing the prospects of the American economy, the
big split between consumer-related and investment-
related activity is of greatest relevance. Considering
furthermore that it has developed over years, it cannot
be discarded as cyclical. Clearly, the overall poor
profit and capital spending performance is structural.
And with the economy's slowdown it has dramatically
worsened..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3864" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3864</a>

09/16/02 CAREER CRIMINAL
by Bill Bonner

"...We've come to believe that Mr. Greenspan's fame and
fortune seem to vary inversely with the price of
gold..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3856" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=3856</a>

------------

HEADLINE, NEWS And INSIGHT: Paralyzed At The Turning
Point...Has The Internet Radically Altered The Way The
World Works?... Plus, Anecdotal Evidence The World
Economy Is Already In A Slump...

Timing Your Leap to the Unpopular
by Dr. Marc Faber

"...At most major turning points or milestones in
financial history, the minds of most investors are as if
paralyzed: they simply cannot understand that the rules
of the investment game have radically changed. Thus, the
majority of investors will miss the dynamic and powerful
first upward move in the new major theme of the
investment universe..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=2438" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=2438</a>

The Most Significant Technological Invention of All-Time
by Raymond F. Devoe, Jr.

"...To qualify as 'most important' technological
development does not necessarily mean changing the way
the world operates, which the Internet certainly has
done. It should also be a radical departure, not a line
extension of existing technology..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=2423" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_index3.cfm?id=2423</a>

Perception Versus Reality
by Dr. Kurt Richebacher

"...It is generally hoped that the spendthrift consumer
will sustain overall demand until rising business
capital investment kicks in. The latest data show the
exact opposite development on both counts..."
<a href="http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=2416" target="_blank">http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=2416</a>

FLOTSAM AND JETSAM: Anecdotal Evidence of A World-Wide
Slowdown?

WHAT TAXI DRIVERS AND BARMAIDS ARE TELLING US
- Dr. Marc Faber
The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report

"...I was recently in one of Zurich's expensive taxis
and asked the driver how business was. According to him,
his income had dropped by about 25% in the last year. A
few days later, I was in Chicago and had a drink in a
restaurant while waiting for a friend.

En passant, I asked the barman how business was. He said
that it was very quiet and had declined compared to a
year ago. Then, on my way back to Chiangmai, where for
the last few weeks I have been very busy writing, I
stopped in Hong Kong for a few days. In the taxi on the
way from my hotel to the city airport train terminal,
the driver tried to talk me into letting him take me all
the way to the airport. Normally, the fare from Hong
Kong to the airport, with all the tunnel and highway
charges, is around HK$370 (US$47), but this driver was
prepared to charge me only HK$200 (US$26).

During my time in Hong Kong, I also visited some of the
city's night entertainment spots. I have been doing this
fairly regularly during the 29 years I have lived in
Hong Kong, so I have some insights into its nightlife
and its ancillary businesses. I have never seen Hong
Kong's bars so empty. At several place, which until
recently had never offered special prices during the
early evening hours ("happy hour"), prices had been cut
by 40%.

Moreover, there were about three or so entertainers for
each customer (which amounts to a bull market in
friendliness and the quality of service - a very unusual
occurrence in Hong Kong!).

I mention the above because if you listen to government
officials and the majority of economists, the economy is
growing and the risks of a double dip recession are
minor. But when you talk to ordinary people, most of
them will tell you that business is sluggish or down.

In the case of the US, it seems that the strength of the
economy is largely based on the housing and automobile
industries, which in turn owe their vibrancy to
extremely rapid consumer and mortgage credit growth..."

Editor's note: How long will mortgage refinancing and
consumer credit keep the economy afloat? That seems to
be the 64 trillion dollar question. You can read more
anecdotes, analysis and investment advice from Dr. Faber
in your current issue of...

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-------------

ybnormal

You answered all my questions with your, "Yes."

And yes, I spend much time on investment boards... the economy is doing just fine... Bush first talked it into the ground, and has been driving it deeper ever since... it's doing just fine without his help... he and the boys are not the least bit interested in the economy... which is fine by me... the worse it gets, the better chance he won't be in for another 4 years...

And what the hell has all this to do with C&SS?

Buffman

I was wondering the same thing. I've played the stock and option markets for decades. If an economist isn't richer than Bill Gates, he/she has very little info that I wish to hear.

Plebe

Ybnormal writes:"And what the hell has all this to do with C&SS?" Plenty!To paraphrase whomever said it "Religion does well in bad times" and I think the current Administration is using avenues such as religious charities to quell the tide of discontent that is inevitable in difficult economic times and the religious through encouragement feel they have permissions to act as a result. I have simply supplied a vital resource for understanding the trend of both bad and good times, that being the observations and opinions of successful economists and investors. Since we are on the crest of "The Secular Bear" [as I called it "The Religious Bull"] naturally we will see a corresponding increase in seeking for answers to the hardships[joblessness, etc.] faced by the non-ultra and non-affluent through religions and mental health professionals as they are buffeted by the process of a prolonged depressed state of the markets[at least as they experience it, the wealthy will find all of the profitable areas, ie: through commodities investing for example vs. stock market and real estate-they simply shift their money around ahead of what the media says and are largely insulated from anything financially drastic due to the stability of their large reserves.]We will probably see a continuing trend of pronounced coverage of issues related to Church and State Separation as long as we are not in a state of economic prosperity. It has been said "War is good for the economy" and I hate to say it, but I think the US just may end up instigating a few rather large wars followed by another era of prosperity similar to that experienced post WWII, no?

Buffman

Plebe

Those are interesting theories and opinions. However, for me, they are extremely difficult to read and follow due to their length and physical presentation on the page. You might wish to consider paragraphing the individual points/thoughts more often. (Take a breath now and again.)

Your last point, that C-SS is hot again due to a depressed market/lost jobs/weak economy/economic cycle, seems like quite a stretch. From my investigations of the history and the tracking of the radical religious right in this country, I tend to believe that they are interested in anything that makes them stronger and everyone else subservient to their dictates.

One of the most important goals of any religious organization is gaining complete control over the minds of the children, for sure, and as many adults as possible. The children are the ones that guarantee the future health (including financial resources) of the specific Sect/ Denomination.

Now, if those religious organizations can conduct their indoctrination programs using public tax monies, that frees their private financial resources to other forms of influence and recruitment. Just look at this little statistic I uncovered concerning the recent Supreme Court Voucher decision.

In the 1999-2000 period, there were approximately 27,000, "so-called," PRIVATE, K-12, schools in the USA, educating 5.3 million students. There were 8,102 Catholic schools educating 2,548,(xxx) students. There were 13,268 other religious schools educating 1,871,(xxx) students. There were 5,853 non-sectarian schools educating 842,(xxx) students.

Thus, we have 21,370 religious schools that were being supported by private funds that can now lobby state legislatures to institute Voucher Programs that will allow them to use public funds to defray the cost of indoctrination in specific religious dogmas as part of their sectarian educational systems. That means that there is a potential of 4,419,(xxx) religious school students that can now tap state public educational funding to the tune of around $2,500-$4,500 a year each. (Just do the math to get an idea of how much public money could be diverted away from the public school system at a time where funding is sadly lagging requirememnts.)

Additionally, Florida by-passed the voters and instituted a Voucher Program that could increase the number of students qualifying for vouchers to attend "private" schools. (Note: Many secular private schools are extremely expensive and cater to the monied caste. They are very selective and normally would not elect to enroll voucher qualified students for those small amounts. Additionally, at the moment, no private school of any ilk is required to follow the same state dictates that "must" be followed by the public schools.)

Regardless of the reasons, I do not want government in the business of supplying religions with my tax dollars...under any pretense. The current Bush administration, in collusion with certain members of our Supreme Court, have decided that the majority religion, adhering to directives from a make believe power greater than our Constitution, have the moral authority to circumvent the 1st Amendment an impose a monotheistic tyranny on the country simply because the majority faith belief is Christian. One must wonder if taxpayer funds would be diverted to supporting private schools whose missions were to reveal the facts about the superstitions and myths found in their Holy Bible. I think not.

The fundamentalist Christians have successfully sold the propaganda lie that are public school system is failing in every respect. They argue that the primary reason for this so-called failure is that only secular humanism is taught there and God/Christianity has been thrown out of the system.

So I have difficulty getting behind your theory of economic cycles accounting for religious madness and C-SS activity...unless as a consequence of far different economic factors than you have enumerated so far.

[ September 22, 2002: Message edited by: Buffman ]</p>